At Rs. 12,512 crores, net of defence revenue receipts (without adjusting which the figure would be Rs. 13,438,77 crores). the defence budget for 1987-88 is the highest ever price that we are paying for our security. Such a high level of public spending merits a close scrutiny.   There   are,   however,   two   attendant   difficulties:   defence   is   treated   with unquestioning acquiescence; and, all defence budgets are obfuscatory by nature, cloaking figures in secrecy and spreading out the expenditure under other heads, wherever possible.

Relating  defence  spending  to  GNP  is  somewhat  of  an  exercise  in  futility;  our GNP figures themselves being so muddled, the percentages succeed only in confusing the issue. Despite that, with Rs. 12,512 crores as our working base, its ratio to GNP will be in excess  of  5.5  per  cent.  This  is  not  unreasonable,  considering  that  Pakistan  spends  near abouts 8 per cent on defence. But that reassurance is by itself empty. The current level of defence expenditure represents almost a fifth of our total budget, and 32 per cent of our total non-plan expenditure. There is an even more telling index; a ratio between the budget estimates of 1986-87 (Rs. 8,728 crores) and those of the current yean the latest hike is of the order of 43 per cent.

To determine whether this is indicative of a continuing trend or it is a departure, we have to examine the 'actuals' of our defence budgets. Taking 1979-80, as the base year, we  find  that  our  'actuals'  then  (not  estimates)  were  Rs.  3,164  crores.  From  that  to  the current year's 'estimates', the growth is of the order of almost 400 per cent if we do not discount inflation. From 1979-80 till 1983-84, we witness an average annual increase of 16 per cent; the quantum enhancement never going beyond Rs. 830 crores in a single year. The budget of 1984 provides the divide; a jump of 20 per cent, the principal reason being the U.S. military aid to Pakistan. Since then all yearly jumps have teen in excess of Rs. 2,000 crores; the average annual increase under the present government being of the order of 26 per cent.

Service Pensions

Of  Rs.  12,512  crores,  the  largest  slice  understandably  goes  to  the  army  which takes 51 per cent of the allocation; the other two services between them get just under 18 per cent; navy 4.75 per cent and the air force 1 3 per cent (This percentage is not inclusive of the capital expenditure). Service pensions at Rs. 703 crores cost us around six per cent of the total. Pay and allowances take away nearly a quarter of the defence budget at Rs. 3,100 crores (the army having to spend nearly 40 per cent of its own allocation on this ac- count).  After  computing  the  other  establishment  expenses  of  the  three  services,  we  find that the actual monies available for 'modernisation' are only a fraction of the total budget. Thus  there  is  need  to  ask  whether  we  are  falling  into  the  trap  of  seeking  security  in numbers alone. What afterall is the task that has been entrusted to our ministry of defence? Surely,  it  must  not  be  the  simultaneous  protection  of  all  our  land  borders  and  maritime territories,  against  ail  adversaries;  our  diplomacy  must  come  to  the  assistance  of  our defence.