I was asked recently to participate in a panel discussion, organised by the Statesman, in Calcutta, on the occasion of their Annual Award for Rural Reporting. The theme of the discussion was - "Do we really need a change of government?" We were four participants, drawn from various political parties. What was most striking about this discussion was the audience response and participation, from a hall full of spectators which had spilled over even into the basement, where the proceedings were being carried live on internal circuit television. This response forcefully communicated an important message: Irrespective of how we, the political activists view the coming elections, the electorate has already started anticipating the event with great anxiety.

Therefore, before coming to whether 'we really need a change of government', let us address ourselves to two questions that currently trouble all, well, almost all: 'Can the Opposition make it? And if it does, will it then deliver the goods, or will it flounder?' The other question being -'Will Rajiv Gandhi get a second term?' There is as yet, and understandably, no learned assessment about all this; perhaps it is much too early.

These questions however, do get posed, and they accent the anxiety with which the coming event is being viewed Conjectures when made are broadly of four kinds: Firstly, the speculations of the new 'psephologists', this involves the surveys that India Today and some others periodically put across. Whereafter we have 'the demographic', that which goes into an analysis of how various communities are likely to respond to the last five years of this Rajiv regime: To illustrate, 'minorities have abandoned the Congress'; or the 'Hindu card will tell'; 'the Harijan are disenchanted' etc. There are then the examiners of the 'wave phenomena', who inform us already that in the coming elections, 'there is not going to be any kind of a wave'. In any case, underlying this variety of speculation is an assumption that for the Indian electorate politics is a minor and occasional preoccupation. (Perhaps rightly so assumed). That they respond to elections depending on the mood of the moment. This is a bit worrisome, because the implication of it is that our electorate is as fickle as our politicians. The fourth variety is, of course, pure conjecture. It attempts to tabulate, in seats, the post-elections scene, region-wise, and to then come to apparently convincing but otherwise purely arbitrary assessments, about the numbers of seats that the Opposition will get or the Congress retain. As there is time yet for such exercises, let us address ourselves, presently, to just two questions: 'Do we really need a change of government in the next elections'; and 'Will a change of government bring about any change,' (We will, in subsequent columns consider the prospects of the opposition, its assets and liabilities).